Estimating the health effects of COVID-19-related immunisation disruptions in 112 countries during 2020-30: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: There have been declines in global immunisation coverage due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Recovery has begun but is geographically variable. This disruption has led to under-immunised cohorts and interrupted progress in reducing vaccine-preventable disease burden. There have, so far, been few studies of the effects of coverage disruption on vaccine effects. We aimed to quantify the effects of vaccine-coverage disruption on routine and campaign immunisation services, identify cohorts and regions that could particularly benefit from catch-up activities, and establish if losses in effect could be recovered. METHODS: For this modelling study, we used modelling groups from the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium from 112 low-income and middle-income countries to estimate vaccine effect for 14 pathogens. One set of modelling estimates used vaccine-coverage data from 1937 to 2021 for a subset of vaccine-preventable, outbreak-prone or priority diseases (ie, measles, rubella, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus [HPV], meningitis A, and yellow fever) to examine mitigation measures, hereafter referred to as recovery runs. The second set of estimates were conducted with vaccine-coverage data from 1937 to 2020, used to calculate effect ratios (ie, the burden averted per dose) for all 14 included vaccines and diseases, hereafter referred to as full runs. Both runs were modelled from Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2100. Countries were included if they were in the Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance portfolio; had notable burden; or had notable strategic vaccination activities. These countries represented the majority of global vaccine-preventable disease burden. Vaccine coverage was informed by historical estimates from WHO-UNICEF Estimates of National Immunization Coverage and the immunisation repository of WHO for data up to and including 2021. From 2022 onwards, we estimated coverage on the basis of guidance about campaign frequency, non-linear assumptions about the recovery of routine immunisation to pre-disruption magnitude, and 2030 endpoints informed by the WHO Immunization Agenda 2030 aims and expert consultation. We examined three main scenarios: no disruption, baseline recovery, and baseline recovery and catch-up. FINDINGS: We estimated that disruption to measles, rubella, HPV, hepatitis B, meningitis A, and yellow fever vaccination could lead to 49 119 additional deaths (95% credible interval [CrI] 17 248-134 941) during calendar years 2020-30, largely due to measles. For years of vaccination 2020-30 for all 14 pathogens, disruption could lead to a 2·66% (95% CrI 2·52-2·81) reduction in long-term effect from 37 378 194 deaths averted (34 450 249-40 241 202) to 36 410 559 deaths averted (33 515 397-39 241 799). We estimated that catch-up activities could avert 78·9% (40·4-151·4) of excess deaths between calendar years 2023 and 2030 (ie, 18 900 [7037-60 223] of 25 356 [9859-75 073]). INTERPRETATION: Our results highlight the importance of the timing of catch-up activities, considering estimated burden to improve vaccine coverage in affected cohorts. We estimated that mitigation measures for measles and yellow fever were particularly effective at reducing excess burden in the short term. Additionally, the high long-term effect of HPV vaccine as an important cervical-cancer prevention tool warrants continued immunisation efforts after disruption. FUNDING: The Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium, funded by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. TRANSLATIONS: For the Arabic, Chinese, French, Portguese and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

The physical activity at work (PAW) study: a cluster randomised trial of a multicomponent short-break intervention to reduce sitting time and increase physical activity among office workers in Thailand.

Background: Sedentary behaviour increases the risks of non-communicable diseases. The objective of this trial was to evaluate the effect of the Physical Activity at Work multicomponent intervention to reduce sedentary behaviour in Thai office workers. Methods: Offices under the Ministry of Public Health Thailand, were randomly allocated to the intervention and control group in a 1:1 ratio, stratified by office size. The intervention included individual (pedometer and lottery-based financial incentives), social (group movement breaks), environmental (posters), and organisational (leader encouragement) components. At baseline and 6-month follow-up, participants wore ActiGraphTM on the waist for ten days. The primary outcome was the between-group difference in sedentary time at 6-month, analysed using a linear mixed-effects model. Other outcomes were physical activity, biomarkers, productivity, and musculoskeletal health. Trial registration: The PAW study was registered at the Thai Clinical Trials Registry (ID TCTR20200604007) on 02 June 2020. Findings: 282 office workers were recruited and randomly allocated to the control group (142 participants, nine offices) and the intervention group (140 participants, nine offices). The mean age was 38.6 years (SD = 10.4), and 81% were women. There was no evidence of intervention effects on sedentary time during waking hours (-26.8; 95% CI = -69.2 to 15.7 min), physical activity levels, or biomarkers between groups at 6-month. In the adjusted analysis, increases in time spent in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (5.45; 95% CI = -0.15 to 11.1 min) and step count (718; 95% CI = -45 to 1481 steps) during waking hours were observed, although there was no evidence of a difference between groups. Interpretation: The intervention did not significantly reduce sedentary time in Thai office workers. Suboptimal intervention uptake due to Covid-19 pandemic restrictions and loss of statistical power associated with recruitment constraints may explain this result. Further investigations are needed to evaluate the processes of the trial. Funding: The Thai Health Promotion Foundation and the International Decision Support Initiative (iDSI).

The social cost of high sodium diet in Singapore.

High sodium (Na) diet is one of the leading behavioural risks of disease identified in the Singapore Burden of Disease Study. We aim to estimate the cost attributable to a high Na diet in Singapore in 2019 from a societal perspective by employing a prevalence-based approach in cost-of-illness studies. We extracted national-level healthcare data and population attributable fractions by sex and age. Costs included direct and indirect costs from inpatient treatment and productivity losses. In 2019, the annual societal cost attributable to a high Na diet was conservatively estimated to be USA$262 million (95 % uncertainty interval (UI) 218, 359 million). At least USA$67·8 million (95 % UI 48·4, 120 million) and USA$194 million (95 % UI 153, 274 million) could be saved on healthcare and indirect costs, respectively, if the daily Na intake of Singaporeans was reduced to an average of 3 g. Overall, males had higher costs compared with females at USA$221 million (95 % UI 174, 312 million) and USA$41·1 million (95 % UI 33·5, 61·7 million), respectively. Productivity loss from foregone wages due to premature mortality had the largest cost at USA$191 million (95 % UI 150, 271 million). CVD had the largest healthcare expenditure at USA$61·4 million (95 % UI 41·6, 113 million), driven by ischaemic heart disease at USA$41·0 million (95 % UI 21·4, 88·9 million). Our study found that reducing Na intake could reduce future healthcare expenditures and productivity losses. This result is vital for policy evaluation in a rapidly ageing society like Singapore, where the burden of diseases associated with high Na diet is expected to increase.

Impact of Subsidy on the Use of Personalized Medicine in Breast Cancer.

OBJECTIVES: Advances in adjuvant therapy have led to increased survival rates after cancer prognosis. Herceptin, a targeted therapy, had first been introduced to Singapore in 2006. We aimed to assess whether subsidies for Herceptin from 2012 will lead to changes in uptake among HER2-positive patients by socioeconomic groups. METHODS: Random-intercept logistic regression was used to model diagnostic test and Herceptin uptake using the Singapore Breast Cancer Cohort from 2006 to 2018, adjusting for covariates such as education, housing type, and marital status before and after subsidies. Interrupted time series analysis was used to evaluate the impact of Herceptin subsidy on treatment uptake. Concentration index was also computed by ethnicity and education to measure inequality in uptake. RESULTS: We found that the odds of diagnostic testing were not associated with socioeconomic factors. Nevertheless, before subsidies, highest education attained (odds ratio 4.57; 95% confidence interval 1.90-11.02; P<.01) significantly increased the odds of Herceptin uptake. These odds were leveled after the introduction of subsidies to Herceptin treatment from 2012. After subsidy, we also found that Herceptin uptake increased significantly by 11.4% (95% confidence interval 3.47-19.4; P=.016). In addition, inequality of Herceptin use decreased especially among the Indians, where at least 40% were used in the higher educated group before subsidy. CONCLUSIONS: Subsidies have lowered the barriers to Herceptin uptake for marginalized individuals. Having targeted subsidies for socioeconomically disadvantaged groups may work more efficiently in providing ease of access than a blanket subsidy in Herceptin.

The physical activity at work (PAW) study protocol: a cluster randomised trial of a multicomponent short-break intervention to reduce sitting time and increase physical activity among office workers in Thailand.

BACKGROUND: High levels of sedentary behaviour (SB) are associated with non-communicable diseases. In 2016, the estimated total healthcare expenditure from physical activity (PA) in Thailand added up to $190 million in international dollars. The challenge to reduce SB and increase PA among office workers is more urgent now than ever as Thailand is transforming itself from a predominantly rural country to an increasingly urban one. This study will investigate the effectiveness of a multicomponent short break intervention on the reduction of SB during office hours. METHODS/DESIGN: This two-armed Physical Activity at Work (PAW) cluster randomised controlled trial will recruit 360 office workers from 18 offices in the Thailand's Ministry of Public Health (MOPH). Offices will be randomised to either the intervention group or the control group. The multicomponent intervention is informed by the Social Ecological Model and Behaviour Change Techniques (BCTs) and contains four components: (i) organisational, including heads of the participating divisions leading exercises, sending encouragement text messages and acknowledging efforts; (ii) social, including team movement breaks and team-based incentives; (iii) environmental, including posters to encourage exercise; and (iv) individual components including real-time PA feedback via an individual device. The main intervention component will be a short break intervention. The primary outcome of this study is the sedentary time of office workers. Secondary outcomes include time spent on PA, cardiometabolic outcomes, work productivity, musculoskeletal pain, and quality of life. The study also includes process and economic evaluations from the individual and societal perspective. DISCUSSION: The study will be the first experimental study in Thailand to investigate the effect of a short-break intervention at the workplace on SBs of office workers and health outcomes. The study will also include a cost-effectiveness analysis to inform investments on short break interventions under the Universal Healthcare Coverage in Thailand, which includes health promotion and disease prevention component. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The PAW study has been registered at the Thai Clinical Trials Registry (TCTR) under the study ID TCTR20200604007 . Registered 02 June 2020,.